Adobe Inc. ADBE
Verdict: Hold. Fair value $387 against a price of $330 on 12 Jan 2026, 17% above the price.
In plain words
The case for: Market leadership enables pricing power. Revenue growth years 1-5 of 14.0%. Revenue growth years 6-10 of 8.0%.
The case against: Revenue growth years 1-5 of 6.0%. Revenue growth years 6-10 of 3.0%. Vulnerability to revenue shock (0.367 cushion).
Main risks
- Thin revenue cushion: 0.4% decline causes EBIT loss
- Revenue growth at ~11% indicates a maturing company, potentially limiting explosive future upside.
- TTM Revenue ($17.57B) is lower than the most recent full year (2023: $19.41B), which could signal a recent slowdown.
- A high beta of 1.53 suggests the stock is significantly more volatile than the overall market.
- No identifiable competitive moat
- Market volatility