Assurant, Inc. AIZ
Verdict: Hold. Fair value $308 against a price of $238 on 12 Jan 2026, 30% above the price.
In plain words
The case for: Narrow competitive moat provides durability. Market leadership enables pricing power. Excellent management capital stewardship.
The case against: In FY2024, receivables grew 8.02% ((9553.9M / 8845.0M) - 1) while revenue grew only 6.70%.... The calculated Beneish M-Score is -1.7646, which is slightly above the -1.78 threshold, indicating.... Net Income has shown significant volatility, dropping from $1.36B in 2021 to $0.28B in 2022 before....
Main risks
- High Days Sales Outstanding (277 days) indicates significant capital tied up in receivables/reinsurance recoverables
- Historical earnings volatility (Net Income dropped significantly in 2022 before recovering)
- Revenue growth (5.2% 3Y CAGR) is modest compared to high-growth sectors
- In FY2024, receivables grew 8.02% ((9553.9M / 8845.0M) - 1) while revenue grew only 6.70%...
- The calculated Beneish M-Score is -1.7646, which is slightly above the -1.78 threshold, indicating...
- In FY2024, receivables grew 8.02% ((9553.9M / 8845.0M) - 1) while revenue grew only 6.70% ((11877.5M / 11131.6M) - 1). This divergence can indicate aggressive revenue recognition or a deterioration in collection efficiency.