Allegion plc ALLE
Verdict: Sell. Fair value $136 against a price of $161 on 5 Jan 2026, 15% below the price.
In plain words
The case for: Wide competitive moat provides durability. Market leadership enables pricing power. Industry tailwinds with growing market.
The case against: Earnings beats are suspiciously precise (+0.1%, +0.1%, +0.0%) over recent quarters, suggesting.... Operating Cash Flow and Balance Sheet data (Assets, Inventory, Receivables) were not provided,.... 2024 Net Income grew 11.1% while Revenue only grew 3.3%. Without OCF data, it is unclear if this....
Main risks
- Revenue growth decelerated significantly in 2024 (3.3%) compared to prior years.
- Missing Balance Sheet data prevents assessment of leverage, solvency, and capital efficiency (ROIC).
- Valuation (P/E ~23x) appears elevated relative to the 2024 revenue growth rate.
- Earnings beats are suspiciously precise (+0.1%, +0.1%, +0.0%) over recent quarters, suggesting...
- Operating Cash Flow and Balance Sheet data (Assets, Inventory, Receivables) were not provided,...
- Earnings beats are suspiciously precise (+0.1%, +0.1%, +0.0%) over recent quarters, suggesting potential earnings smoothing or managed guidance.