Ball Corporation BALL
Verdict: Sell. Fair value $45.90 against a price of $53.65 on 5 Jan 2026, 14% below the price.
In plain words
The case for: Narrow competitive moat provides durability. Market leadership enables pricing power.
The case against: 2024 Net Income ($4.01B) is 33x higher than Operating Cash Flow ($0.12B), indicating earnings are.... Accruals ratio of +0.22 significantly exceeds the +0.10 red flag threshold, suggesting low quality.... Revenue declined by ~2.2% (2023 to 2024) while Net Income increased by ~464%, a mathematical....
Main risks
- Revenue is consistently declining (-5.1% 3yr CAGR) indicating shrinking footprint or divestitures.
- Operational Cash Flow ($0.55B TTM) is extremely weak relative to Revenue ($12.7B) and Debt ($5.7B).
- Reported Net Income ($4.01B) is heavily distorted by non-recurring items (likely divestiture gains), masking weak core profitability.
- 2024 Net Income ($4.01B) is 33x higher than Operating Cash Flow ($0.12B), indicating earnings are...
- Accruals ratio of +0.22 significantly exceeds the +0.10 red flag threshold, suggesting low quality...
- 2024 Net Income ($4.01B) is 33x higher than Operating Cash Flow ($0.12B), indicating earnings are driven almost entirely by non-cash items or one-time gains.