CME Group Inc. CME
Verdict: Hold. Fair value $253 against a price of $275 on 6 Jan 2026, 8% below the price.
In plain words
The case for: Wide competitive moat provides durability. Market leadership enables pricing power. Industry tailwinds with growing market.
The case against: Macro headwinds could impact growth. Valuation multiple compression risk.
Main risks
- Anomalous TTM CapEx: The reported TTM CapEx of -$0.08B is highly unusual, suggesting either a data error or significant asset sales exceeding purchases, which warrants further investigation.
- Low ROA: The ROA of 2.6% is very low, which is typical for exchanges due to large collateral and clearing deposits on the balance sheet, but it highlights that total assets are not a useful measure of operational efficiency.
- Limited Analyst Upside: The mean analyst price target suggests only 4.7% upside, indicating the market may have already priced in the company's high quality and growth prospects.
- Market volatility
- Execution risk
- Macroeconomic uncertainty