Camden Property Trust CPT
Verdict: Strong sell. Fair value $103 against a price of $109 on 5 Jan 2026, 6% below the price.
In plain words
The case for: Data insufficient for detailed bull case.
The case against: Net Income is extremely volatile, declining from $0.65B in 2022 to $0.16B in 2024. In contrast,.... The company has a low earnings beat rate of 25% over the last four quarters, with an average.... The financial data used for this analysis is 97 days old. While still relevant, conclusions should....
Main risks
- Collapsing Profitability and Returns: Net Income has fallen dramatically from $650M in 2022 to $160M in 2024, crushing ROE to a very low 3.4% and ROIC to an estimated 2.2%, well below any reasonable cost of capital.
- Negative Incremental Return on Capital (ROIIC): The estimated 3-year ROIIC is -7.5%, a severe red flag indicating that the incremental ~$1.6B of capital invested over the last three years has actually corresponded with a decline in EBIT, suggesting value-destructive capital allocation or severe market headwinds.
- Stagnating Revenue Growth: After a period of strong growth, annual revenue flattened completely in the most recent year (0% growth), signaling a potential cyclical peak or increased competition.
- Net Income is extremely volatile, declining from $0.65B in 2022 to $0.16B in 2024. In contrast,...
- Overhang: Elevated supply of new apartment deliveries in Sun Belt markets is constraining rent growt...
- Net Income is extremely volatile, declining from $0.65B in 2022 to $0.16B in 2024. In contrast, Operating Cash Flow remained stable and strong, moving from $0.74B to $0.77B over the same period. This massive divergence indicates GAAP earnings are heavily influenced by large, non-cash items and are not representative of core operational performance.