CRH plc CRH
Verdict: Hold. Fair value $102 against a price of $131 on 12 Jan 2026, 22% below the price.
In plain words
The case for: Narrow competitive moat provides durability. Market leadership enables pricing power. Accretive share repurchase program.
The case against: Growth slows. Elevated risk of guidance miss or cut. Vulnerability to revenue shock (13.8 cushion).
Main risks
- Potential/actual debt covenant breach
- High risk of earnings miss: The company has a 50% beat rate over the last four quarters with an aver...
- Revenue growth decelerating significantly (1.8% vs 3Y CAGR 6.8%)
- Working capital efficiency deteriorating (CCC increased by 8.5 days)
- Cyclical exposure to construction slowdown in key markets
- Market volatility