EQT Corporation EQT
Verdict: Sell. Fair value $64.49 against a price of $53.35 on 6 Jan 2026, 21% above the price.
In plain words
The case for: Narrow competitive moat provides durability. Market leadership enables pricing power. Industry tailwinds with growing market.
The case against: Intense competitive pressure could compress margins. GAAP Net Income exhibits wild swings, from a loss of -$1.14B in 2021 to a profit of +$1.77B in.... From 2022 to 2023, revenue collapsed by 58% (from $12.14B to $5.07B), yet Net Income remained....
Main risks
- Extreme Revenue & Earnings Volatility: Revenue collapsed from $12.14B in 2022 to $5.22B in 2024, and Net Income fell 87% from $1.77B to $0.23B, highlighting significant commodity price risk.
- Collapsing Profitability & Returns: Latest annual Net Margin is only 4.4% and ROE is a mere 1.1%, a dramatic deterioration from prior years, indicating poor current profitability.
- High Reinvestment Needs: TTM CapEx of $2.27B represents nearly 48% of Operating Cash Flow, suggesting a high capital intensity to maintain and grow production.
- GAAP Net Income exhibits wild swings, from a loss of -$1.14B in 2021 to a profit of +$1.77B in...
- From 2022 to 2023, revenue collapsed by 58% (from $12.14B to $5.07B), yet Net Income remained...
- Intense competitive environment