Eversource Energy ES
Verdict: Sell. Fair value $61.22 against a price of $67.79 on 12 Jan 2026, 10% below the price.
In plain words
The case for: Narrow competitive moat provides durability. Market leadership enables pricing power. Revenue beats.
The case against: In 2024, receivables grew by 15.4% year-over-year (from $1.43B to $1.65B) while revenue was flat.... Net Income swung dramatically from a $1.40B profit in 2022 to a -$0.44B loss in 2023, then.... The calculated Beneish M-Score is -1.99, which is below the -1.78 threshold, suggesting a low....
Main risks
- Downside survival at risk: 6 months runway
- Potential/actual debt covenant breach
- Thin revenue cushion: 0.2% decline causes EBIT loss
- Low ROIIC (5.9%) indicates inefficient capital deployment relative to asset growth
- High leverage (Net Debt/EBITDA 5.63x) and low interest coverage (~1.8x)
- In 2024, receivables grew by 15.4% year-over-year (from $1.43B to $1.65B) while revenue was flat (-0.1%). This divergence suggests potential issues with revenue recognition quality or difficulty in collecting cash from customers. Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) increased from approximately 44 days to 51 days.