Expedia Group, Inc. EXPE
Verdict: Hold. Fair value $308 against a price of $296 on 12 Jan 2026, 4% above the price.
In plain words
The case for: Narrow competitive moat provides durability. Market leadership enables pricing power. Industry tailwinds with growing market.
The case against: Intense competitive pressure could compress margins. In 2024, accounts receivable grew 15.3% (from $2.79B to $3.21B) while revenue grew only 6.6% (from.... The Beneish M-Score could not be calculated as key inputs (Current Assets, Net PPE, SG&A, Current....
Main risks
- Potential/actual debt covenant breach
- Thin revenue cushion: 0.1% decline causes EBIT loss
- Revenue growth decelerating to 6.6%
- High operating expenses (marketing) compressing net margins
- High Debt/Equity ratio (4.88x) despite low net debt
- Intense competitive environment