First Solar, Inc. FSLR
Verdict: Sell. Fair value $252 against a price of $239 on 12 Jan 2026, 6% above the price.
In plain words
The case for: Narrow competitive moat provides durability. Market leadership enables pricing power. Industry tailwinds with growing market.
The case against: Intense competitive pressure could compress margins. In 2024, accounts receivable grew by 90.8% (from $660.8M to $1261.0M) while revenue only grew by.... Key financial data points required for the Beneish M-Score calculation (Current Assets, Net PPE,....
Main risks
- Thin revenue cushion: 0.3% decline causes EBIT loss
- High risk of earnings miss: The company has an extremely tight earnings surprise history over the la...
- Working Capital Efficiency: CCC rising to 244 days indicates significant cash tied up in inventory/receivables.
- High Inventory Levels: DIO of 210 days poses risk of obsolescence or carrying costs, though common in project-based solar.
- Historical Cash Burn: While TTM FCF is positive, prior years showed consistent cash burn due to heavy growth CapEx.
- Intense competitive environment