Hasbro, Inc. HAS
Verdict: Sell. Fair value $79.17 against a price of $85.58 on 6 Jan 2026, 7% below the price.
In plain words
The case for: Narrow competitive moat provides durability. Market leadership enables pricing power.
The case against: High industry disruption risk. Intense competitive pressure could compress margins. Revenue has collapsed from $6.42B in 2021 to $4.14B in 2024, a 35.5% decline over three years. This....
Main risks
- Severe Revenue Contraction: Annual revenue has collapsed from $6.42B in 2021 to $4.14B in 2024, a -13.6% 3-year CAGR, indicating a major loss of market share or secular decline.
- Extremely High Leverage: A Debt/Equity ratio of 2.94 is very high, and Net Debt/EBITDA is estimated at a concerning 4.5x, increasing financial risk significantly, especially with declining revenues.
- Value-Destructive Capital Allocation: The estimated 3-year ROIIC is -31.8%, suggesting that recent investments have coincided with a significant decline in operating profit, a major red flag for management's capital allocation strategy.
- Revenue has collapsed from $6.42B in 2021 to $4.14B in 2024, a 35.5% decline over three years. This...
- Net Income has swung wildly from a $0.20B profit in 2022 to a massive -$1.49B loss in 2023, and...
- High industry disruption risk