Intuit Inc. INTU
Verdict: Sell. Fair value $560 against a price of $634 on 6 Jan 2026, 12% below the price.
In plain words
The case for: Wide competitive moat provides durability. Market leadership enables pricing power. Industry tailwinds with growing market.
The case against: The OCF / Net Income ratio, while still very strong, has declined sequentially over the last three....
Main risks
- Unusual negative TTM CapEx ($-0.13B) suggests significant asset sales or a potential data anomaly that requires further investigation.
- Incomplete historical data (missing 2021 financials, cash balance, historical balance sheet) necessitates the use of proxies for key metrics like ROIIC, reducing confidence in their precision.
- Valuation is not cheap (Price/TTM FCF ~27.8), implying high market expectations that the company must continue to meet or exceed to justify the current stock price.
- Valuation prices in optimistic scenario (limited margin for error)
- Overhang: Cautious FY2026 guidance and an outlook that fell short of market expectations, creating u...
- Market volatility