Invesco Ltd. IVZ
Verdict: Sell. Fair value $28.20 against a price of $28.16 on 6 Jan 2026.
In plain words
The case for: Narrow competitive moat provides durability. Industry tailwinds with growing market.
The case against: Intense competitive pressure could compress margins. Net Income is extremely volatile, swinging from $1.63B (2021) to -$0.33B (2023) and back to $0.77B.... There is a massive and recurring divergence between Net Income and Operating Cash Flow. In 2023, a....
Main risks
- Profitability Collapse & Volatility: Net income has been extremely erratic, swinging from a $1.63B profit (2021) to a $0.33B loss (2023). The current ROE of 5.3% is exceptionally low for the industry.
- Negative Incremental Returns on Capital: A highly negative proxy ROIIC of -20.6% is a severe red flag, suggesting that capital retained/invested over the last 3 years has destroyed shareholder value as profits declined.
- Stagnant Long-Term Growth: Despite a recent annual rebound, the 3-year and 5-year (4-year period) compound annual growth rates for revenue are negative, indicating a persistent struggle to achieve sustainable growth.
- Net Income is extremely volatile, swinging from $1.63B (2021) to -$0.33B (2023) and back to $0.77B...
- There is a massive and recurring divergence between Net Income and Operating Cash Flow. In 2023, a...
- Intense competitive environment