Molina Healthcare, Inc. MOH
Verdict: Sell. Fair value $205 against a price of $183 on 6 Jan 2026, 12% above the price.
In plain words
The case for: Narrow competitive moat provides durability. Industry tailwinds with growing market.
The case against: Intense competitive pressure could compress margins. The OCF / Net Income ratio plummeted from a healthy 1.52 in 2023 to a very weak 0.55 in 2024. This.... In 2024, Revenue grew 19.3% and Net Income grew 8.3%, yet Operating Cash Flow collapsed by 61.4%....
Main risks
- Severe Negative Cash Flow: TTM Operating Cash Flow (-$0.46B) and Free Cash Flow (-$0.57B) are deeply negative, indicating significant cash burn and a major divergence from reported annual profits.
- Negative TTM Profitability & Returns: The TTM EBIT proxy is negative (-$0.66B), resulting in a negative ROIC (-8.7%). This suggests current operations are fundamentally unprofitable on a cash basis.
- Value-Destructive Capital Allocation: The estimated 3-year ROIIC is -110.1%, a catastrophic figure suggesting that capital invested over the last three years has led to a significant decline in operating profits.
- The OCF / Net Income ratio plummeted from a healthy 1.52 in 2023 to a very weak 0.55 in 2024. This...
- In 2024, Revenue grew 19.3% and Net Income grew 8.3%, yet Operating Cash Flow collapsed by 61.4%...
- Intense competitive environment