Newmont Corporation NEM
Verdict: Hold. Fair value $104 against a price of $106 on 6 Jan 2026, 2% below the price.
In plain words
The case for: Narrow competitive moat provides durability. Market leadership enables pricing power. Industry tailwinds with growing market.
The case against: Net Income has swung dramatically from a loss of $-2.49B in 2023 to a profit of $3.35B in 2024..... In 2022 and 2023, the company reported significant net losses ($-0.43B and $-2.49B) while.... The large negative non-cash charges inferred in both 2022 and 2023 suggest a pattern of significant....
Main risks
- Extreme earnings and cash flow volatility, with significant net losses in FY2022 and FY2023, highlighting high sensitivity to commodity prices and operational challenges.
- Revenue stagnation and decline from 2021-2023 before a massive 2024 jump raises questions about the long-term consistency and sustainability of recent performance.
- Negative Return on Equity in the recent past (implied by negative Net Income in 2022/23), indicating periods of significant value destruction for shareholders.
- Net Income has swung dramatically from a loss of $-2.49B in 2023 to a profit of $3.35B in 2024....
- In 2022 and 2023, the company reported significant net losses ($-0.43B and $-2.49B) while...
- Net Income has swung dramatically from a loss of $-2.49B in 2023 to a profit of $3.35B in 2024. This extreme volatility makes reported earnings an unreliable indicator of core, sustainable performance.