PPG Industries, Inc. PPG
Verdict: Hold. Fair value $91.58 against a price of $106 on 6 Jan 2026, 13% below the price.
In plain words
The case for: Narrow competitive moat provides durability. Market leadership enables pricing power. Industry tailwinds with growing market.
The case against: Intense competitive pressure could compress margins.
Main risks
- Declining Revenue Trend: TTM revenue of $14.13B is a significant drop from the $15.6B-$16.8B range of the prior three full years, indicating a sharp business contraction.
- Poor Capital Allocation: The estimated 3-year ROIIC is -13.3%, suggesting that capital invested over the last three years has destroyed shareholder value as EBIT has declined.
- Volatile and Weakening Free Cash Flow: FCF is highly erratic year-to-year ($0.48B in 2022 vs $1.90B in 2023), and the TTM FCF margin is low at 5.1%, indicating poor predictability.
- Intense competitive environment
- Overhang: Recent underperformance, evidenced by a 13.5% Year-To-Date drop, and broader 'industry shi...